GERMANY Trends and Developments Contributed by: Richard Prechtel and Matthias Reuleaux, activelaw Offenhausen.Wolter PartmbB
German Corporate Jet Market In general, business aviation has seen a mas - sive increase in business activity over the last cou - ple of years. This can be illustrated by reference to the increase of flight operations generally and by the increase of deliveries of new aircraft: looking at Q1/2025, flight operations globally increased by 2.4% year on year due to further expansion of the customer base. As regards the delivery of new aircraft, experts (Cirium Aviation Analytics) predict the delivery of approximately 8,700 new corporate jets between 2025 and 2034, with an increase of 11% for 2025 (year on year) alone. Due to the dominant stake of higher- priced aircraft (Gulfstream, Bombardier and Dassault), the expected aggregate volume of purchase prices for the new 2025 deliveries is within the range of USD25 billion. Only 50% of purchases are expected to be self-financed, the remaining half having demand for lending. About two thirds of new aircraft deliveries are to be allocated to the North American market and only 13% to the European market. But the market moves sideways as well. Many cor - porate business jet fleets are being downsized as a result of public reception, legal pressure to minimise carbon footprint and general economic uncertainty. This downsizing of the German business jet fleet by about 20% is mostly absorbed by membership and fractional ownership programmes, which grew by the same amount. Sustainability in aviation has attracted major atten - tion in the commercial aircraft market, especially the airline segment. While this topic does not attract the same degree of importance in the business jet market, European operators apparently make stronger efforts to contribute to reduction of their carbon footprint, while North American operators lag behind. Lastly, the biggest issue of concern in the business jet market in 2025 will be uncertainty regarding the impact tariffs potentially imposed by the US govern - ment will have on the various segments and regions targeted. This concerns new business jets, pre-owned jets and also the maintenance sector. Looking at this issue from the perspective of EU member states and potential buyers that are interested in selling and pur - chasing pre-owned aircraft from US parties: there
will be a split in the market between business jets produced (Gulfstream, Textron) or based in the USA, and the rest of the world. Prices of US manufacturers will rise, since US buyers are able to buy only those without tariffs. MRO based in the US will have a huge disadvantage since they have to pay tariffs on parts. European MRO will probably see more US custom - ers, which will lead to less slot availability for German customers and higher prices as well. German Airline Market The major part of any analysis of aviation markets is the comparison between pre-pandemic air traffic and the current status of the industry. Globally, the avia - tion industry has fully recovered: passenger volumes in 2024 exceeded those in 2019 by 4% (according to IATA, freight traffic is 7% above the 2019 figures). Industry experts refer to the strong recovery in the Asian markets, especially in China. In terms of passenger numbers, the recovery rates of European air traffic were not as strong as the global trend. In particular, the German trend falls behind. Passenger numbers at German airports in 2024 were approximately 15% below pre-pandemic levels from 2019. Market observers name two important issues that have caused this trend: firstly, there has been a major decline in demand for domestic travel (although domestic flight operations in Frankfurt and Munich did roughly exceed the 2019-levels in 2024). Secondly, airlines have reduced the availability of flight capacity in German airports: several reductions of routes, or even cancellations of entire routes, were announced in 2024. Airlines refer to increased contributions to operation - al costs in Germany, which inter alia relate to state- imposed fees at German airports. For example, with reference to additional state-imposed fees, in October 2024 Ryanair announced full cancellation of flights into three destinations (Dortmund, Leipzig and Dresden) and a 60% reduction of capacity at Hamburg airport. That translates into 1.8 million fewer passenger seats being available for 2025. Data from the German Aerospace Center (DLR) shows the substantive increase of costs that airlines are exposed to when operating from German airports: a
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