INTRODUCTION Contributed by: Bahar Alaeddini, Harris Hagan
Predicting the predictions markets The predictions market has dominated the US betting market in 2025 by posing the simple question of what is meant by a bet. Kalshi and Polymarket (known as “predictors”) are federally regulated by the Commod- ity Futures Trading Commission (CTFC) and therefore fall outside the authority of state gambling regulators, who argue that laying money on the outcome of a sports event is sports betting and should be regulated by them. It therefore comes as no surprise that many US state regulators have issued cease and desist orders against predictors. Kalshi processed more than USD1 billion in sports wagers from 3.4 million bets in the second half of 2025, which gives an insight into state legislators’ concerns about missed revenues, risks to the sports betting ecosystem, and the lack of con- sumer protections. At the time of writing (November 2025), Polymarket opened a market on whether pre- dictions would be banned in 2025, with a 40% chance (marking an increase from 10% the previous month). Also in November 2025, Flutter and DraftKings left the American Gaming Association owing to their predic- tion market plans.
Emerging markets Emerging gambling markets continue to transform the global landscape and spark enthusiasm, particu- larly given the higher costs of operations and compli- ance in mature regulated markets. As newer markets emerge, they offer significant opportunities and risks to gambling businesses. In January 2025, after a turbulent period, Brazil regu- lated online betting. In North America, online gambling is expected to launch in Alberta in 2026. Nigeria con- tinues to be at the forefront of Africa’s booming gam- bling market. In the Middle East, all eyes remain on the UAE, as the regulator has indicated online gambling will be live before the end of 2025. Closer to home in Europe, the role of the newly established Irish gam- bling regulator will continue to expand as the country transitions to the new regime.
7 CHAMBERS.COM
Powered by FlippingBook