FRANCE Trends and Developments Contributed by: Anne-Sophie Noury, Alicia Bali and Saam Golshani, White & Case
which their acquisition structures were based. The result is a cohort of private equity-backed companies now struggling under excessive debt. Fitch Ratings has warned of a looming “debt wall”, estimating that between EUR30 and EUR35 billion of poorly rated French corporate debt will mature in 2028, compared with only EUR5 billion in 2026. The refinancing needs of these businesses will surface well before maturity, placing additional strain on the market. As for the out - look, this suggests that the peak of refinancing risk might intensify in the coming years, requiring early and complex restructuring strategies to be designed well ahead of 2028. The broader macroeconomic context worsens these difficulties. French growth remains weak due to sub - dued household consumption, deteriorating external trade balances and an uncertain political environment. Confidence among both consumers and businesses is fragile, and while there are positive indicators, such as modest GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025, slight increases in business investment and a grad - ual decline in inflation, these are insufficient to offset structural weaknesses. Sectoral crises in construc - tion, real estate, traditional retail, chemicals and parts of healthcare have reinforced the sense of instability.
The key takeaway from the first half of 2025 is there - fore twofold. On the one hand, the surge in insolven - cies appears to be slowing, offering hope that the market is beginning to stabilise. On the other hand, the nature of the cases entering insolvency suggests that restructuring activity will remain intense and stra - tegically important. Larger employers, heavily indebt - ed private equity backed groups and energy-intensive industries are all likely to feature prominently in the months and years ahead.
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