INTRODUCTION Contributed by: Gary Born and Matteo Angelini, King & Spalding LLP
Global Overview: International Arbitration in 2026 The international arbitration landscape in 2026 is dominated by macroeconomic and geopolitical fac - tors. After a series of economic shocks in recent years, the global economy is on the brink of recession. Geopolitical conflicts, particularly in the Middle East, have profoundly disrupted the energy and shipping industries. The tariff war following the announcement of sweeping US tariffs in April 2025 has combined with elevated public debt levels, high sovereign borrow - ing costs and persistent inflation to leave the global economy in a precarious position: in April 2026, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned of a sharp global economic slowdown and a high risk of reces - sion. This macroeconomic uncertainty has combined with geopolitical events (including the rise of national - ist and protectionist policies and the increasing use of international sanctions) to present serious sup - ply chain challenges and create a highly volatile and uncertain business environment. This instability and volatility has, in turn, led to a proliferation of disputes across a wide range of sectors. The areas that are seeing the most disputes are construction, energy and shipping. These are sectors in which arbitration has historically been, and continues to be, the preferred dispute resolution mechanism. Against this background, it is hardly surprising that most leading arbitral institutions have reported a record – or close-to-record – caseload over the past year in terms of both the number of disputes referred to arbitration and the size of those disputes. The USA-Iran War The military conflict between the USA, Israel and Iran that broke out in March 2026 has severely disrupted global trade, primarily by triggering a de facto closure, the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and international sanctions. Many international businesses are unable to use critical trade corridors, which has made the performance of numerous existing com - mercial contracts more difficult and, in some cases, impossible. This has triggered a surge of internation - al arbitrations concerning force majeure or contract frustration-based claims as parties seek to enforce, suspend or terminate supply contracts.
The USA-Iran conflict has also triggered a number of treaty-based claims. The most prominent treaty claim is Iran’s new inter-governmental claim before the Iran- United States Claims Tribunal in The Hague, in which it has cited US military and economic actions in 2026 as violations of the 1981 Algiers Accords. The ongoing military confrontation in the region is likely to continue to cause supply chain disruptions as shipping, flight and trade routes are suspended or disrupted, and many UAE-based businesses have activated contingency measures. These disruptions are, in turn, likely to trigger a further wave of interna - tional trade-related disputes that will be referred to arbitration over the coming months and years. The Russia-Ukraine War The effect of the Russia-Ukraine war on the arbitration landscape has changed over time. Initially, in 2022, there was a sharp decline in the number of Russia- related arbitrations as reported by the London Court of International Arbitration (LCIA) and other major institutions. The ensuing disruptions, however, have triggered a large number of Russia-related disputes. Since the invasion, many businesses have been forced to cease operations in Russia or have seen their operations taken over by the Russian govern - ment. In 2025, Naftogaz, Ukraine’s largest national oil and gas company, and Net4Gas, the Czech Repub - lic’s gas transmission system operator, secured bil - lion-dollar awards against Gazprom over its failure to make monthly payments under their gas transporta - tion contracts. Global sanctions against Russia and the anti-arbitra - tion stance of the Russian courts have created com - plications for parties bringing claims against Russian sanctioned entities. Article 248 of the Russian Arbi - trazh Procedure Code grants Russian courts exclusive jurisdiction over disputes involving sanctioned Rus - sian entities. Since 2024, it has been invoked over 200 times to override exclusive jurisdiction clauses and/or to issue anti-arbitration injunctions. This stance has resulted in courts in both common and civil law jurisdictions ordering anti-suit relief against Russian proceedings.
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