INTRODUCTION Contributed by: Domicio dos Santos Neto and Frederico Favacho, Santos Neto Advogados
beans – a shift that carries systemic implications for the structure of global oilseed markets, the viability of export-oriented agricultural expansion, and the price assumptions embedded in land values and rural credit across the Southern Hemisphere. China is currently the world’s largest soybean importer by a substantial margin, accounting for approximately 60% of global soybean imports and having absorbed a record 111.83 million metric tons in 2025. Its pur- chasing decisions are the single most important vari- able in global soybean price discovery. Two concur- rent developments are now reshaping those decisions in ways that will be felt not only in Brazil and Argentina (together responsible for approximately 66% of glob- al soybean exports), but across every market whose dynamics are linked to oilseed pricing, including live- stock feed, vegetable oil and biodiesel. • The first is a series of bilateral purchase com- mitments with the United States that redirect a material share of Chinese soybean imports away from South American suppliers. Following a sum- mit between Presidents Trump and Xi in October 2025, China committed to purchase at least 12 million metric tons of US soybeans in the final two months of 2025, and at least 25 million metric tons annually in each of 2026, 2027 and 2028. A further expansion in May 2026 committed China to at least USD17 billion per year in US agricultural products across the same period, beyond the soybean volume commitments. The 25 million metric ton annual soybean target represents approximately 22% of China’s projected total imports, partially reversing the reorientation of Chinese sourcing that occurred during the 2025 trade war, when China directed record volumes to South American sup- pliers. South American soybean exports to China in 2026 are already projected to decline materially relative to 2025 peaks as a result. • The second and more structurally durable develop- ment is China’s domestic food security strategy. The 2026–2030 Five-Year Agricultural Plan sets targets to increase total grain production from 700 to 715 million metric tons, with a stretch goal of 750 million tons, and places particular emphasis on reducing dependence on imported protein. The Ministry of Agriculture’s Three-Year Action Plan to
Reduce Soybean Meal in Feed, launched in 2023, targets a reduction in the share of soybean meal in compound livestock feed from approximately 17% at its peak to 10% by 2030. According to Goldman Sachs analysis published in December 2025, measures already implemented (including substitution of soybean meal with alterna- tive protein sources and improvements in feed-con- version efficiency) reduced Chinese soybean demand by approximately 15 million metric tons between 2021 and 2024; Goldman projects a further reduction of up to 42 million metric tons between 2030 and 2035 through continued substitution and livestock genetic improvements. A government-backed outlook released in April 2026 projects Chinese soybean imports to decline from 111.83 million metric tons in 2025 to 82.55 million metric tons by 2035 – a reduction of 26.2% that, if realised, would be the largest structural demand reduction in the history of globally traded oilseeds. The aggregate impact on global agricultural trade pat- terns would be profound: commodity prices, acreage allocation decisions and infrastructure investment models across South America, the United States and the Black Sea region have all been calibrated to the assumption of continuously expanding Chinese demand. A sustained structural decline would require a fundamental recalibration of those models, and the adjustment is unlikely to be smooth or linear. Biofuels and bioinputs: the energy transition as a structural opportunity for agricultural commodity markets Against the backdrop of compressed commodity pric- es, rising input costs and tightening market access in traditional destinations, the global energy transition is emerging as one of the most consequential structural opportunities for agricultural commodity markets in the coming decade. The convergence of three major regulatory move- ments – the IMO’s Net-Zero Shipping Framework, the EU’s suite of decarbonisation mandates for transport, and the global expansion of sustainable aviation fuel requirements – is creating entirely new demand vec- tors for the very commodities most exposed to price
9 A GRICULTURA L LAW 20 26
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