MEXICO Trends and Developments Contributed by: Michell Nader and Julián J Garza, Nader Hayaux & Goebel
Introduction In terms of M&A expectations, 2026 is showing signifi - cant similarities to 2025 despite a number of circum - stances that are now reshaping the overall outlook. Among other matters, 2026 is now predominantly being shaken by geopolitical tensions of a kind that has not been seen in several decades. The escalation of conflicts in several regions, including the Middle East, makes it very difficult to predict how profound an impact such conflicts, and other associated factors, may have on the global economy and on business affairs concerning Mexico. The current governments in both Mexico and the Unit - ed States are now well established and in their second year but facing many challenges ahead. There is par - ticular uncertainty over the balance between inflation and economic growth. Last year, the expectations for 2026 were more optimistic in terms of inflation con - trol; however, as 2025 came to an end and 2026 took off, the inflation showed signs of resilience, prompting governments to think twice before moving ahead with aggressive tax cuts aimed at fuelling growth in the economy. As a result, it is not clear how willing central banks will be to take action to incentivise consump - tion and whether they will instead continue to focus on tempering inflation concerns. Of particular importance for Mexico and the United States will be the renegotiation of the US–Mexico– Canada Agreement (USMCA) which is scheduled to take place this year. The relationship between Mexico and the United States in areas such as trade, immi - gration, investments, social, labour and politics is so deep that it seems unlikely that radical decisions on the USMCA might undo the ties between both countries, particularly as regards their joint economic infrastructure. Both countries will continue to find opportunities to work on their existing commercial relationships, expand a few new industries and find areas of opportunity for M&A transactions. As in 2025, Mexico will struggle to grow during 2026. The economy continues to show a need for major investments in strategic areas such as infrastructure. A possible deceleration of the economy may occur; however, Mexico is expected to reopen opportunities for private investment in a number of industries and
economic sectors. Mexico has continued to expand its reception of investment and its M&A activity with other regions, including multiple countries in Europe and Asia. Overall confidence continues to exist in Mexico as a top destination to invest in and continue to do busi - ness with. Therefore, as mentioned above, it is more likely than not that there will be circumstances that promote an appropriate investment environment in Mexico in the short and medium terms, and that addi - tional sectors will open up more significantly to M&A opportunities. A Review of 2025 2025 was a strong year for M&A activity in Mexico. After a depreciation of approximately 15% during 2024, in 2025 and the beginning of 2026, the Mexican peso became one of the strongest currencies in the exchange markets and is currently hovering around MXN17.5 per US dollar. This solid appreciation is due to multiple factors, including the overall weakness of the US dollar and the attractiveness of Mexican rates, which continue to afford an interesting margin on top of the rates offered in the United States and other markets. This performance by the Mexican peso has hit the value of Mexican exports and decreased the value of other assets. By the same token, it has kept Mexico in a competitive position in other sectors. The strong peso factor, together with the previously mentioned challenging balance between inflation and growth, is creating uncertainty, on top of other signifi - cant factors such as political circumstances and secu - rity concerns. It is not clear whether inflation concerns will cease in either Mexico or the United States and, therefore, lowering rates to foster economic growth may take longer than expected. Strategic industries, including logistics, distribu - tions and deliveries, hospitality, industrial real estate, exports, retail, pipelines, manufacturing and food, among many others, continued to grow in M&A-relat - ed activity during 2025. Of particular interest is the exponential growth of M&A activity in the financial industry. All sorts of finance- related institutions have seen meaningful activity in
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