USA Trends and Developments Contributed by: David McIntosh, Matt Byron, Zoe Dettelbach, Paul Matheke and Toby Shao, Ropes & Gray
el-risk management, bias mitigation and operating- model changes – to capture ROI through cycle-time compression, higher-quality hits and earlier safety screens. A report from the World Economic Forum said that programme playbooks point to expanding use of large-scale generative design and simulated experiments alongside ethical frameworks as deploy- ments widen in 2026. Meanwhile, a Fierce Pharma report predicted that the shift from generative AI to agentic AI could result in a temporary stall in adop- tion and implementation in delivering product lines, but said any such slowdown will likely be temporary. Continued interest in obesity-related drugs The GLP-1 market has become one of the most com- petitive areas of the industry, driving major pharma companies to pursue next-generation GLP-1 assets through internal development and acquisition. With over 120 metabolic assets in development across 60 companies, there is no shortage of potential acqui- sition targets. The high-profile bidding competition between Pfizer and Novo Nordisk over Metsera sig- nalled growing urgency in the GLP-1 market, with competition poised to intensify as differentiation opportunities shrink and supportive policy develop- ments expand market access. Additionally, industry analysts have predicted that oral GLP-1 formulations will take centre stage, with major approvals expected in 2026. Pitchbook noted that Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are now competing primar- ily on manufacturing capacity and direct-to-consumer distribution rather than clinical data, and suggested newer entrants in this space may struggle to carve out market share without clear efficacy or tolerability advantages over the established players. GLP-1s have also made headlines in the policy realm. The two incumbents in the GLP-1 space, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, entered into pricing agreements with the Trump administration covering their GLP-1 drugs Zepbound (Lilly) and Ozempic and Wegovy (Novo Nor- disk). Eli Lilly’s agreement also reportedly included its recently-approved oral GLP-1, orforglipron. Chinese biotech is here to stay China’s favourable biotech policy environment contin- ued to incentivise innovation, solidifying its rise in the
biopharma industry, according to reporting by Forbes . Chinese biotech firms have delivered novel assets across multiple clinical areas, including cancer, inflam- mation, cardiometabolic diseases and rare diseases. Chinese biotechs have demonstrated greater efficien- cy in drug development, leveraging their advantage in biomanufacturing and strong government grants and domestic PE/VC investments, according to Stifel analysts . China-to-West licensing has also driven transac- tion volume . As Western drugmakers’ pipelines have thinned, they have turned to China to source novel molecules, with one-third of all licensing and collabo- ration capital going to Chinese companies in 2025. Top deals included a USD12.5 billion agreement between GSK and Shanghai-based Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co., Ltd., signed in July, granting to GSK an ex-China worldwide licence for the compa- ny’s chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) drug candidate along with 11 other drug candidates across several clinical areas that could lead to mile- stone payments of up to USD12 billion. AstraZeneca also signed a deal with Chinese firm CSPC worth up to USD5.2 billion in June. Stifel analysts warned that the intensity of China’s pharmaceutical industry growth has the potential to outpace US and European innovation. PwC similarly predicted that cross-border licensing deals with China will continue to reshape global pharmaceutical pipe- lines. In contrast, Fierce Pharma suggested that nation-state competition could cool on cross-border licensing and collaboration, pointing to the passage of the BIOS- ECURE Act and other developments in US industrial policy, which may put pressure on US biotech com- panies to increase investment in domestic bioscience After a turbulent 2025 policy-wise, including threats of high tariffs on the industry, cuts to federal health agencies like the FDA, and the administration’s bro- kering of most-favoured nation (MFN) drug pricing agreements with the major pharmaceutical compa- nies, outlook among analysts for 2026 was optimistic. innovation and manufacturing capacity. Policy and the current administration
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