MEXICO Trends and Developments Contributed by: Alejandro Stamoglou, Jesús Pérez Alcántar and Julio Jiménez Manrique, Bello, Gallardo, Bonequi y García, S.C.
the executive branch, raising concerns among experts about their independence. Expectations for 2026 Despite Mexico’s complex economic, political and legal environment, the country remains an attrac - tive destination for investment. Achieving this, how - ever, requires adapting contractual frameworks and implementing practical, innovative legal strategies that enable investors to anticipate and mitigate risks effectively. Strengthening compliance programmes and closely monitoring regulatory developments will also be essential to ensure certainty and long-term stability for investment projects. Looking ahead, 2026 is expected to be marked by key events that will shape Mexico’s trajectory, influenced by an increasingly challenging global geopolitical con - text, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Venezuelan political crisis. From an economic perspective, the current GDP growth forecast stands at 1.3%, a figure that may be revised as global political and economic dynam - ics evolve throughout the year. Likewise, the Bank of Mexico is expected to maintain its monetary easing cycle, with analysts projecting a benchmark interest rate of approximately 6.50% by year-end. Inflation will remain a critical variable, requiring continuous moni - toring to safeguard price stability and sustain investor confidence. A pivotal development will be the upcoming review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which represents a critical juncture that could significantly reshape Mexico’s trade relations with its principal partners. Negotiations are expected to be highly complex, driven by multiple requests for amendments from all three parties, covering areas such as rules of origin, labour standards, environmen - tal commitments and dispute resolution mechanisms. The outcome will have far-reaching implications, not only for regional trade flows but also for the competi - tiveness of strategic sectors and Mexico’s ability to attract foreign investment. In this context, Mexico will need to strengthen trade relationships with countries outside existing free trade agreements, and recent tar -
iff policies applied to such nations will likely undergo close scrutiny. Another major international event will be the FIFA World Cup, jointly hosted by Mexico, the United States and Canada. Although Mexico will host a smaller num - ber of matches compared to the other two countries, investment opportunities and economic spillover are expected to increase substantially. In preparation, the Mexican government has prioritised the modernisa - tion of transportation infrastructure and the enhance - ment of public transit networks to ensure efficient con - nectivity and improve the visitor experience. These measures aim not only to meet the logistical demands of the tournament but also to deliver long-term ben - efits in urban mobility and infrastructure development. The government is also expected to continue promot - ing investment through productive public spending and infrastructure projects, making the participation of domestic institutional investors, such as pension fund managers ( Afores ), a strategic component. This is due to the significant volume of assets they man - age, which has historically supported large-scale pro - jects in sectors such as energy, transportation and communications. Additionally, private credit activity is anticipated to experience notable growth, driven by the increasing demand for non-bank financing alter - natives among small and medium-sized enterprises ( Pymes ) seeking to diversify funding sources and sus - tain expansion in a dynamic economic environment. In the political sphere, the President is expected to submit to Congress a proposed political reform aimed primarily at reducing the number of deputies and sen - ators and lowering public spending associated with electoral campaigns. Furthermore, in the context of the 2027 electoral process, during which several gov - ernorships and the federal Congress will be renewed, political and promotional activity by prospective can - didates is expected to intensify. This process will be particularly significant as the ruling party and its allies seek to consolidate their political presence and main - tain the legislative majority that currently facilitates the advancement of the government’s agenda. In the legal domain, mediation and arbitration clauses are expected to remain the preferred mechanisms for
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