NETHERLANDS Trends and Developments Contributed by: Herald Jongen, Maarten de Boorder, Samuel Garcia Nelen and Jelmer Kalisvaart, Greenberg Traurig, LLP
market rebounded in the third and fourth quarters, with an uptick in large capability-driven transactions. There is ample opportunity in the market for strategic deals, driven by, for example, the energy transition (green tech), AI and the urge to make Europe more competi- tive and strategically autonomous. This positive trend is expected to persist throughout the remainder of Q4 2025 and into 2026, with increased participation from strategic buyers and PE firms. Expectations for 2026 The following areas are expected to see high activity in 2026: defence, cyber, energy/green tech, AI, sover- eign cloud and cloud applications. This is also indicat- ed by Jamie Dimon’s announcement that JP Morgan will spearhead investment of USD1.5 trillion in four critical industries: defence and aerospace, “frontier” technologies (cybersecurity, etc), energy technology and supply chain. The commitment of the EU member states at the 2025 North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit in the Netherlands to increase their annual defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035 is expected to lead to large investments in the defence sector. Very often, these investments are tech-driven and cross-Europe- an. In this space, strong momentum to collaborate between governments and private (institutional) inves- tors is anticipated to funnel investments in defence and dual-use technology. In the energy sector, more investments in energy infra- structure, such as large battery storage projects, and nuclear energy, such as small modular reactors, are expected. It is also expected that not only PE, but also pension funds and other more traditional funds, will invest in these projects. APG’s recent investment in a large battery storage platform is a good example. Cybersecurity and cyber warfare will grow further, and as a result more investments in secure AI, data centres and the cloud will be required. In 2025, substantial PE investments have been seen in AI start-ups and scale-ups, which is only the beginning of the large waves of investments that are expected in 2026.
In the EU, there is an ongoing debate about the need to build EU-only tech infrastructure (cloud and more) to avoid further vendor lock-in and dependency on non-EU providers. This will further fuel large invest- ments. Also, the migration of applications to the cloud will lead to more M&A activity, since such migrations can be very costly and risky, although costs and risk can sometimes be mitigated by buy instead of build. Furthermore, it is important to highlight the rapidly growing ecosystem of quantum start-ups and invest- ments in the Netherlands. There has been a notable increase in the number of quantum start-ups in the Netherlands (29 in the past five years) backed by private investments. Recent Series A rounds involv- ing companies such as QuantWare, Qblox, QuiX and Orange Quantum Systems demonstrate that interna- tional investors are actively seeking opportunities in the Netherlands. Although the competition from China and the United States remains intense, the Netherlands is positioning itself as an international hub for quantum technology with ongoing support from the National Growth Fund. Navigating Open-Source Software Trends in M&A In the Netherlands, open-source software (OSS) is a significant driver of M&A activity, especially in tech- driven sectors like fintech, AI and cloud computing. Several trends are emerging as companies leverage OSS for innovation, but there are also unique chal- lenges tied to the Dutch regulatory and business envi- ronment. Dutch technology companies are increasingly adopt- ing and contributing to open-source business mod- els, particularly in sectors like fintech, cloud comput- ing and AI. Companies using OSS in hybrid models (offering free OSS with paid premium services or cloud offerings) are attractive M&A targets due to their scal- ability and wide developer adoption. In the Netherlands, the active open-source community plays a crucial role in the success of OSS-driven busi- nesses. Acquirers are often drawn to the strength of a target company’s developer ecosystem. Companies that contribute actively to global open-source projects or maintain strong community ties are seen as valu-
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