COLOMBIA Trends and Developments Contributed by: Maryna Pogibko, Rafat A Rizvi and Mykhailo Grydzhuk, Amadeus
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Colombia’s Counter-Narcotics Reset Amidst the Rise of Lawful Agribusiness Investment A policy shift that business should not ignore On 9 September 2023, a year after being sworn in as President of the Republic of Colombia, Gustavo Petro unveiled a 10-year plan outlining how Colombian state institutions would tackle narcotics trafficking and the unlawful cultivation of coca plants for cocaine pro- duction. The document included a level of detail not seen before from any previous Colombian administra- tion. Coming from the first left-leaning president in the country’s history, this was the determined “fresh start” that Petro had promised the electorate. Now, as he prepares to hand over the presidency after the elections in May (he is constitutionally barred from standing for re-election), all the signs indicate that President Petro has since reevaluated the strategy he announced in 2023. The Administration is now set to reveal an Enhanced Counter Narcotic (ECN) pol- icy, following extensive discussions with the Trump Administration and various domestic and international stakeholders. Whilst the ECN is expected to focus heavily on the role to be played by the Colombian armed forces and law-enforcement agencies, sup- ported by improved technological and logistical co- operation with their US counterparts, the ECN will continue to emphasise the President’s “velvet glove” approach that he is determined to leave as part of his legacy, having previously been a senior commander in the FARC armed guerilla movement. The 2023 strategy had a two-pronged focus, defined as “oxygen” and “asphyxiation.” The former aimed to help small coca growers by encouraging them to
voluntarily substitute their coca crops with legal alter- natives, combined with a public health approach to addiction. Asphyxiation was aimed at capturing key members of drug trafficking networks and expanding investigations into related money laundering and cor- ruption. The new ECN is expected to replace “oxy- gen” with a broader, more commercially orientated approach. It is expected to recognise that whilst social welfare programmes have a key role to play in crop substitution, the absence of commercially viable, self- sustaining alternatives means that such programmes are likely to fail. For the better part of two decades, Colombia’s coun- ter-narcotics debate has been framed in terms of eradication, interdiction and security. This narrative is now considered to be insufficient. What is instead emerging is a broader strategy to reduce the coca economy not only through enforcement, but also by developing lawful rural production, lawful supply chains and lawful routes to market. This shift was hinted at during the 69th session of the UN Commission on Narcotic Drugs, held in Vienna on 9 March 2026. In a keynote speech, President Petro noted that Colombia is implementing a programme which will see local and indigenous farmers voluntarily convert 42,000 hectares of coca production to other lawful cash crops. Colombia used the same platform to showcase products associated with legal econo- mies replacing coca cultivation, including cacao, chilli, plantain and coffee. For business, this was more than symbolism: it was a public statement that Colombia wants international markets to see crop substitution
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