COLOMBIA Trends and Developments Contributed by: Maryna Pogibko, Rafat A Rizvi and Mykhailo Grydzhuk, Amadeus
as an economic proposition not merely a social pro- gramme. This message matters because the scale of the under- lying problem remains significant. In October 2024, the UN Office on Drugs and Crime reported that coca cultivation in Colombia rose to 253,000 hectares in 2023, while potential cocaine production reached 2,664 tonnes. In other words, Colombia is not shift- ing policy from a position of comfort. It is doing so because the old model has not delivered durable results, and because a viable legal rural economy is increasingly viewed as part of the solution. Colombia, under Petro, is finally beginning to treat counter-narcotics policy as a cornerstone for devel- oping its rural economic policy. That creates a distinct opportunity for investors, traders and processors to participate in the formation of a new lawful agricultural base, tied to export markets, traceable supply chains and state-backed crop-substitution priorities. From eradication to asset creation For international businesses, the key takeaway is that crop substitution policy can create productive assets. When coca is replaced with lawful crops (cacao, cof- fee, plantain, chilli and other commercially viable products suited to local conditions), the result is not just fewer illicit hectares but also the development of new legal productive acreage, new farmer organisa- tions, new logistics requirements, new offtake rela- tionships and, over time, new processing capacity. This is where “land banking” comes in ‒ provided it is understood correctly ‒ not as a speculative accumula- tion of land, but as the gradual creation of a pipeline of land capable of being brought into lawful, productive and investable agricultural use. There is also a policy logic behind this approach. The OECD notes that Colombia’s National Development Plan for 2022-2026 prioritises the formalisation of land tenure and land reform, as well as the strengthening of agricultural planning, irrigation, financing, technol- ogy and connectivity, together with efforts to shorten supply chains and promote climate-smart production. This is precisely the institutional architecture required if, as the Petro government believes, converting rural
inequality and insecurity into investable legal produc- tion is the priority. The World Bank’s brief “Enhancing the Competitive- ness of Family Farms: The Power of Productive Alli- ances in Latin America and Africa” is also relevant. It highlights that such models can connect small pro- ducers to buyers through business plans, technical assistance and partial financing of productive assets. The report highlights increased sales and income for participating producer organisations and family farm- ers. In the Colombian context, this matters because many areas which are the focus of crop substitution will only become investable if they are organised around bankable, commercially credible relationships with buyers, processors and lenders, rather than left as isolated farming communities with no reliable route to market. This is where forward-thinking businesses and sup- porting legal advisers should focus. The most durable opportunities are likely to lie not only in primary cul- tivation, but in contract farming, the aggregation of lawful crop output from multiple growers, warehous- ing, local processing, export logistics, traceability sys- tems ‒ all aimed at achieving premium certification and export sales prices. The real commercial story is value-chain construction. Why Colombia is commercially well positioned It is broadly accepted that Colombia has long had the natural conditions for a stronger lawful agricul- tural sector. It is already a globally recognised coffee producer and is gaining recognition for quality cacao, with multiple agro-climatic zones, harvest diversity and access to Atlantic and Pacific export routes. What is changing is not the land itself, but the policy narrative around how that land should be used and financed. Cacao is the clearest example. The United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agriculture Ser- vice’s (USDA) December 2025 report notes that Colombia produced 67,700 tonnes of cacao in 2024 on about 200,000 hectares. However, Colombia’s Rural and Agricultural Planning Unit (UPRA) has iden- tified 7.3 million hectares in the country as having high potential for cacao production. The same report notes
123 CHAMBERS.COM
Powered by FlippingBook