POLAND Trends and Developments Contributed by: Agnieszka Stankiewicz, Rafał Siwek, Filip Janeczko and Samanta Wenda-Uszyńska, Greenberg Traurig, LLP
The Polish Real Estate Market in 2026: An Overview Global and domestic trends shaping Poland’s real estate market As we move further into 2026, the global real estate industry continues to adapt to a world characterised by heightened uncertainty, shifting economic condi - tions, and rapid technological change. The conflict in Iran, which has quickly expanded to the entire Middle East, has shaken investor confidence not only in the Middle East itself but also globally. Even if not directly tied to real estate fundamentals in Europe, it affects macro conditions that do influence investment decisions: disruptions have pushed up oil prices and revived concerns about inflation. In the long run, those factors will likely lead to central banks delaying further cuts in or even increasing interest rates, in consequence raising the cost of capital for real estate deals. Decreased oil and gas supply due to ongoing conflicts and sanctions imposed on Rus - sia has also led to a greater focus on increasing the supply of renewable energy and addressing related challenges, including planning restrictions (particularly those affecting wind farms), grid capacity constraints and the storage of surplus of energy generated from renewable sources, especially photovoltaic installa - tions. The factors outlined above have increased mar - ket volatility and, to some extent, pushed investors towards safer or more liquid assets. Considering the illiquidity of real estate assets, overall risk appetite may be reduced in 2026, indirectly affecting investor sentiment towards real estate investment in Poland. Geopolitical uncertainty has led to a sharp increase in investor caution: institutional investors are tending towards more liquid assets or waiting on the sidelines. This has resulted in longer fundraising cycles and lower overall transaction volumes compared to peak years. Another outcome of the macro and geopoliti - cal situation is that capital has become increasingly selective, with smaller and more opportunistic vehi - cles facing greater difficulty in securing commitments. That said, the outlook for Poland’s real estate market remains positive. The fact that Poland has joined the G20 and continues on a healthy growth path sends
an encouraging signal of Poland as a “safe haven” – a stable economy, growing faster than Western Europe, a country with a well-educated and versatile work - force, and lower manufacturing and operating costs – which provides greater opportunities for higher returns on investment. As a result, we are seeing increased interest from opportunistic and value-add investors, with traditional investors also hinting at investing again in core assets in Poland. The growing share of regional investors from CEE has been one of the most important structural shifts in the Polish real estate market in the last few years and intra-CEE capital flows have recently scaled up sig - nificantly. In 2025, CEE real estate investment reached EUR11.6 billion across the region’s six main markets. Czech investors alone deployed EUR600 million into Poland in 2025. By 2025, Poland’s real estate market was no longer primarily dependent on Western capital, instead, it is becoming a regionally driven ecosystem led by regional investors. Poland’s real estate market is also witnessing a clear emergence of long-absent domestic private capital, with an increasing number of wealthy Polish individu - als directly entering the commercial property seg - ment. In H1 2025, Polish investors accounted for over 16% of total investment volume. Moreover, CEE and domestic investors dominate mid-market trans - actions, which now represent a large share of deal flow – the average deal size in 2025 fell to EUR26 million. However, Polish investors are not limiting their investments to small and mid-market transactions – in 2026 they have also started taking an interest in core assets, mainly office buildings and logistics assets of much higher value. After a brief dip in 2022, the num - ber of high net worth individuals in Poland has been steadily increasing, and this creates a large domestic capital pool looking for allocation both directly and through institutional funds. Logistics, data centres and energy transition The supply of logistics real estate in Poland has stabi - lised. Interest in logistics assets is still strong but wan - ing occupier demand for leasing logistics assets has resulted in investors being slightly more selective. In 2026, we expect investors to concentrate on location as they see it as key to ensuring a sustainable income,
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