POLAND Trends and Developments Contributed by: Agnieszka Stankiewicz, Rafał Siwek, Filip Janeczko and Samanta Wenda-Uszyńska, Greenberg Traurig, LLP
with a strong additional focus on the quality of assets, energy sustainability (in order to make such assets attractive to more discerning occupiers) and pursuing opportunities to reposition industrial assets for other higher-value uses, such as conversion to data centres. Globally, data centres top the list of the most sought- after asset class. However, in Poland, power avail - ability, location, insufficient grid capacity and regula - tory compliance remain key considerations. We see increased investor interest in developing data cen - tres in Poland, but this interest is limited to Warsaw and potentially Tricity. It seems that distance from AI hubs located in the USA and Western Europe may also shape the outlook for this particular asset class in Poland, making it less attractive than its Western counterparts. Assets supporting the energy transition are attract - ing increasing allocations from major investors. Even though the narrative of a global retreat from ESG gained momentum last year, from Poland’s perspec - tive, the notion of stepping back from ESG is over - stated. ESG in Poland is evolving into a more struc - tured discipline: assets in sustainable funds in Poland rose by 59% in 2025, showing strong investor interest in ESG-aligned products. Furthermore, the uncertain supply of traditional energy sources has made renew - able energy assets a necessity. Living: responding to demographic changes Residential is set to remain a strong sector in Poland, and the ageing population and an insufficient supply of affordable housing will certainly reshape the entire living sector. The residential market remains largely fragmented and dominated by private investors: institutional private rental sector (PRS) participation is between 1% and 2% of overall rental housing. This imbalance creates a paradox: on one hand, constrained institutional par - ticipation in housing may perpetuate supply shortages and sustain upward pressure on rents; on the other, it preserves a space where individual investors can still obtain relatively higher yields. Private investors’ appetite for residential rentals was expected to be channelled through REIT-like vehicles, which have long been anticipated in Poland. However, recent
announcements by the Polish government indicate that residential properties will not be included. This is due to government concerns that REIT-like vehicles would impact residential property prices, which are already high. Notwithstanding the above, we anticipate that PRS assets will continue to grow and more co-living and academic facilities will be developed – it is expected that 6200 new units will be delivered in 2026. The high demand for institutional rentals is driven by limited affordability of residential mortgages and a migra - tion influx (including migration from Ukraine follow - ing the Russian invasion). Taking into account both ongoing developments and planned investments, the PRS offering in Poland is projected to exceed 36,000 units within the next two years. Among the major PRS operators on the Polish market, the average vacancy rate at the end of 2024 stood at approximately 2%. The largest transaction to date on the Polish PRS mar - ket is expected to close in 2026, which will further demonstrate the liquidity of this sector. Meanwhile, we expect to see rising demand for lux - ury living, driven by affluent clients seeking premium properties in prime locations (in Warsaw, luxury prop - erty prices can reach up to PLN100,000 per sq m), development of the first ever branded residence in Poland and increasing amenity sophistication. Moreover, the hospitality sector is set for a revival (in 2025, Poland came second in Europe in terms of growth in overnight stays), alongside a further blurring of the line between residential real estate and hotels. Insights into the retail and office real estate market In the retail sector, core transactions involving large shopping centres, including portfolio acquisitions, are expected to continue. The liquidity of stand-alone assets will also increase, with retail parks already dominating new supply: in 2025, the share of retail parks in the total transaction volume on the retail mar - ket reached almost 60% and new supply exceeded 4 million sq m). The Polish office market is set for a strong resurgence driven by high tenant demand, limited new supply (which in 2025 stood at 100,000 sq m – the second
483 CHAMBERS.COM
Powered by FlippingBook