PORTUGAL Trends and Developments Contributed by: Duarte Schmidt Lino, Tomás Almeida Ribeiro and Maria Almeida Pulido, PLMJ
PLMJ Av Fontes Pereira de Melo, 43 1050‑119 Lisboa Portugal
Tel: +351 213 197 300 Email: plmjlaw@plmj.pt Web: www.plmj.com
This article explores Portugal’s evolving economic and private equity landscape, with a particular focus on the legal, financial and strategic factors shaping cur - rent developments. As the country moves beyond a period historically defined by restructuring and recovery, a new narrative is taking hold, centred on innovation, consolidation and growth. The rising influence of private equity in this transition mirrors broader global trends, as capital continues to shift from public markets to more agile and strategic private investments. A Resilient Economy Undergoing Transformation Over the last decade, Portugal has made progress in addressing long-standing structural vulnerabili - ties. Despite global headwinds, including geopoliti - cal instability, inflationary pressures and delays in the disbursement of EU funds, the country has emerged as a resilient and increasingly dynamic economy. A steady expansion in tourism, together with stronger export performance, has supported GDP growth and enhanced investor confidence. Nonetheless, Portugal continues to grapple with sev - eral enduring challenges, most of which are shared by the EU as whole. Low productivity, complex regula - tory frameworks and an aging demographic remain areas of concern. Encouragingly, these issues are now being tackled with greater policy precision and more targeted reforms. According to the June 2025 Economic Bulletin issued by the Bank of Portugal, GDP is projected to grow by 1.6% in 2025 – surpassing the euro area average
– and is expected to accelerate to 2.2% in 2026, bol - stered by public investment and a revitalised inflow of recovery and resilience plan (RRP) funds. Private consumption is also set to increase, with household confidence rising alongside economic stability. Export performance continues to strengthen, particularly in services and niche manufacturing seg - ments, which have benefitted from enhanced com - petitiveness. At the macroeconomic level, inflation is forecast to remain just below the European Central Bank’s target, creating a stable investment environ - ment. Labour market conditions remain robust, with employ - ment growth anticipated and unemployment remain - ing at historic lows. Additionally, Portugal’s public debt trajectory is declining steadily, reinforcing the country’s fiscal credibility and positioning it favour - ably in the eyes of international investors. In the last few years, the prevailing economic narrative has no longer been defined by crisis management but by sustainable growth and strategic ambition. Maturation of the Private Equity Market Portugal’s private equity and M&A markets have developed significantly in recent years, supported by greater regulatory stability, increasing investor sophistication and a more diversified economic base. Recent data from TTR Data’s second-quarter report for 2025 reveals that in the first half of the year, Por - tugal recorded 244 transactions with an aggregate value of approximately EUR4.04 billion. This included 52 venture capital deals worth EUR329 million, 32 pri -
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